By Mohamed Hussein | June 8, 2022
The changing precipitation patterns, extreme weather conditions, and the increasing sea level temperatures among other conditions have culminated to the most dreaded issues of climate change in Africa. What is even disturbing is that the key drivers of change towards a sustainable living environment, are also the main perpetrators of climatic change issues. The earth’s temperature has increased by 0.08°C every 10 years since 1880 and that rate has even doubled since 1980. The recent statistics indicate that 2020 surface temperatures were a record warm hence prompting more researchers to seek solutions to this global challenge.
In Africa, the situation is no better. The land is warming up at a higher rate than the global mean surface temperatures. The climatic change conditions in Africa are expected to result into decreased rainfall in the south and northern Africa according to the decade predictions from 2020 to 2024. Climate change is threatening to shake the agricultural sector which is the foundation of Africa’s economy. Since climate change results in drought, the situation hits the vulnerable communities that depend on crop farming to sustain their living.
The devastating floods that have been experienced in the continent are majorly contributed by the climate change issues as a result of human activities such as deforestation and environmental degradation. As a result of climate change, the number of undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa has increased to 45.6% since 2012. The changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures lead to an increase in the global malaria deaths in Africa which was estimated at 93% in 2017. The pressing issues such as population displacement stressed water resources and food insecurity are not stranger to the continent and more adverse effects will be felt if the situation is not addressed.
The Horn of Africa constitutes eight member states namely Ethiopia, Djibouti, South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Kenya, and Eritrea. The arid and semi-arid regions in the Horn of Africa cover approximately 70% of the region and receive less than 600 mm of rainfall annually. In the Horn of Africa, crop farming and livestock rearing is the major economic activity employing over 80% of the population. These regions, therefore, are the major casualties of the rising global temperatures, since it creates unfavorable climatic conditions that render their agricultural activities vulnerable. Though the Horn of Africa has not significantly contributed to global industrial emissions, the region has been greatly affected by the adverse effects of global climatic changes, which can be owed to the human activities in the region.
The population in the region has doubled since the 1960s which has changed the land use patterns and the land cover. As the population increases, the vegetation cover reduces, and the forests are cut down to pave way for the development of settlements. The forests in the African continent are cut down at a rate of 4 Mn hectares per year, which is very worrying as the rate is three times the world’s deforestation rates. In the Horn of Africa, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value of vegetation cover increased between 1982 to 1998 after which it started dropping through to 2013 due to the variation in precipitation. Furthermore, the woodland and forest cover in the region has also declined in the past 20 years by 1.28% and 0.4% respectively. This is indicative of the serious issues of deforestation and the resultant desertification in the region.
In the region, about 12 to 22 million people are estimated to be pastoralists and despite urbanization, the communities have remained resilient to their livestock keeping activities. With the increased number of livestock and population coupled with the drought issues in the region, overgrazing becomes a challenge as the livestock will have to feed on every available land cover hence resulting in environmental degradation. Water resources and catchment bodies are yet another issues that result in climate change in the region. In Kenya, the Mau Forest Complex which is the main catchment area for 12 rivers is facing heightened pressure from deforestation. The people around these regions have encroached on the water resource for settlement, agriculture, and other regulated activities such as burning charcoal. Though the Kenyan government has intervened to protect this critical ecosystem resource, a lasting solution will still need to be brought in place to completely protect these resources from human activities.
As of 2020, more than 40% of the people in the Horn of Africa live in urban areas. This mass migration into urban areas implies that a larger percentage of people are now seeking non-farm employment to supplement their agricultural incomes. Despite the reduction in farm-work activities, there is still a threat of environmental degradation as people are now keen on saving labor but in turn, take environmentally harmful shortcuts. As the region’s population strive to provide food for their families, the cultivated areas are used continually which reduces productivity while increasing the chances of degradation.
Even though the region cannot reverse the global climatic factors, it is still possible to control the human activities through reverting the land cover and land use patterns. Through these changes, the environment can be rehabilitated and significant improvements will be witnessed in the world’s climatic conditions. The World Bank initiated a framework in Ethiopia with the aim of restoring 270 hectares of degraded land; a move that has significantly reduced soil erosion in the area thus preventing land degradation. The regional countries have to pay more attention to the importance of trees in combating the effects of climate change which will reduce drought-related famine that now stands at 13 million in the Horn of Africa. The region and Africa at large have shown positive results in embracing the notion of afforestation and enhancing the land cover practices. The African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AFR100) aims to restore 100 million hectares of land in Africa by 2030, an initiative which the Horn of Africa could benefit from.
Somalia sits at the periphery of the Horn of Africa. Climate is at the heart of the economy of Somalia as agricultural activities account for approximately 65% of the GDP and employment opportunities. With an estimated population of 15.8 million people as of 2020, about 60% of people live in rural areas as nomadic pastoralists. The country has had its share of the adverse effects of climate change, as it has experienced more than 30 climate-related shocks since 1990 in particular 19 flooding and 12 drought conditions. Temperatures are also not getting better here as they average about 27°C with a projected increase of 3°C. The figure below shows the mean temperature and precipitation in Somalia.
The swarm of locusts that invaded the land led to its declaration as a national emergency resulting in the loss of vegetation and livelihood further exacerbating the climatic crisis already in place. In 2011, all the displacements in Somalia were due to drought and flooding. It’s needless to say, that the political instability in the region partly constitutes to the adverse climatic conditions in the country. In 1990, about 13% of Somalia was covered by forests which have later reduced to 10.7% from the statistics of 2010 according to the climatic diplomacy organizations. This disparity is indicative of the ongoing deforestation activities which have significantly contributed to drought and famine. Deforestation in Somalia is greatly owed to charcoal bunning which began way in the 1970s and it was among the major exports in the country. In spite of the employment opportunities created by charcoal, the activities lead to tremendous environmental degradation which extends beyond Somalia. The lack of effective governance structures in Somalia in recent years has also contributed to the continued charcoal business in the region which has heightened environmental degradation. The charcoal activities were majorly conducted by different opposing militant parties and business entities who formed it as their major source of income.
Furthermore, the forested areas in Somalia are being stretched by the increasing grazing activities and subsistence agriculture which further reduces the forest cover in the region. Charcoal burning may not be eradicated completely in Somalia as this is a crucial source of energy for many residents. However, strategies need to be put in place to provide alternative sources of energy and help the people discover alternative livelihoods. To accomplish this, UNDP, UNEP and FAO, and the Ministry of Natural Resources are supporting the government of Somalia in enhancing regional cooperation and instituting enforcement mechanisms of charcoal burning, providing alternative energy solutions hence keeping the climate change at bay.
The regional leaders and institutions in the Horn of Africa have realized the need to formulate immediate actions to restore the environmental damages of climate change that has ravaged the region. The cost of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise to a maximum of $50 billion over the next 10 years. Somalia redefined its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) which spearheaded its commitments to the Paris agreement goals. The mitigation cost of NDC from 2021 to 2030 is expected to reach $6.96 billion. The cost is estimated to increase to $48.5 billion if other resilient and adaptation techniques that enhance sustainability are not considered. The majority of the people in Somalia are battling drought-related famine and speedy actions need to be taken to address the climate issues.
Human activities significantly contribute to climate change. The regulatory frameworks in the Horn of Africa need to reorient their development strategies to restore favorable climatic conditions. The government alone cannot achieve this but through collective responsibility and coordination of all stakeholders. Currently, the climate and environmental experts in the Horn of Africa are closely working with the region’s leaders, institutions, and international partners on the best practices, solutions, and strategies for coping with climate change and its impact on the region. Reversing environmental degradation is not a quick process; however, setting out policies such as preservation of water bodies, reafforestation, and striking a good balance between human beings and the environment will help restore the environment we all want to live in.
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